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Davis faces startling handicap - he can't campaign as himself


July 27, 2003

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Issa was the only declared replacement candidate. The wealthy and conservative San Diego County businessman bankrolled the petition drive to qualify the recall initiative with $1.7 million of his own money.

But the announcement of a recall election triggered a chaotic scramble among potential replacements that will rage until the Aug. 9 filing deadline. Candidates must declare their intentions 59 days before the Oct. 7 election.

Wealthy Los Angeles businessman Bill Simon, the Republican gubernatorial nominee Davis narrowly beat to win a second term in November, declared his candidacy Saturday.

The potential bombshell Republican candidate, actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, is still weighing a run. So is former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan.

Though faced by such rich candidates, money isn't likely to be a problem for Davis, who is backed by unions. The governor is an accomplished fund-raiser.

An array of lesser known Republicans, minor party candidates and political oddballs are toying with the temptation. Among the possibilities are duelling Huffingtons, with the divorced political odd couple of Michael and Arianna Huffington both expressing interest. More surprise entrants are likely.

In fact, there are so many perspective candidates that they could badly fracture the anti-Davis appeal of the election and bolster his chances of staying in office.

Under pressure from state and national Democratic Party officials, California's major Democratic figures have said they will not run. That could swiftly change, however, triggering another scramble, this time among Democrats.

Some Democrats fear staying out of the race - and possibly losing the governorship to the GOP - nearly as much as defying party leaders.

Former Oakland Assemblywoman Audie Bock, a Green Party member who turned Democrat while in office, announced Friday she would run for governor. But analysts said the fringe Democrat, who was defeated after being shunned politically at the Capitol and in the East Bay, wouldn't trigger a Democratic stampede.

In what many view as a zany twist to the aging constitutional provisions for recall, if the majority of voters decides to oust Davis, the top vote-getter among the likely long list of potential replacement candidates gets his job. And that's no matter how few votes they get.

With California in such uncharted political territory, analysts and strategists speculating over potential factors and outcomes have been stumped by the lack of certainties.

Could 10 per cent of the vote be enough to win?

Much more certain, they said, are the challenges facing Davis.

``Arrogance has always been a problem for him, even from the early days of his governorship, when he was saying the job of the Legislature was to implement his vision,'' said Pitney. ``In the next few weeks, he's going to need a humility implant.''

Indeed, Davis began saying this week, ``I'll own up to my mistakes. I haven't done everything perfect.''

And regarding Californians and the economy, he said, ``I know they're hurting, I know these are tough times.''

But Davis must be cautious, experts warn. After all, they said, the last time he was humble came briefly on election night, when he saw he'd barely squeaked past Simon to win a second term.

``It's a little late to change his personality,'' said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political science professor at the University of Southern California. ``People are cynical enough that they'll look at any change in his style and say there goes a politician playing a role again.''

Hodson agrees a major transformation could backfire.

``It would be artificial and would be seen as a ploy if suddenly Gray Davis started acting like Jay Leno,'' Hodson said. ``Voters are very suspicious of candidates who appear to

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